Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa

Author:

Pulliam Juliet R. C.1ORCID,van Schalkwyk Cari1ORCID,Govender Nevashan2ORCID,von Gottberg Anne23ORCID,Cohen Cheryl24ORCID,Groome Michelle J.23ORCID,Dushoff Jonathan15ORCID,Mlisana Koleka678ORCID,Moultrie Harry23ORCID

Affiliation:

1. South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.

2. National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.

3. School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

4. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

5. McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

6. National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.

7. School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.

8. Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa.

Abstract

We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa’s severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference33 articles.

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5. National Institute for Communicable Diseases “The daily COVID-19 effective reproductive number (R) in South Africa: Week 51 2021” (National Institute for Communicable Diseases 2021); https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/COVID-19-Effective-Reproductive-Number-in-South-Africa-week-51.pdf.

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