Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

Published:2021-08-20 Issue:6557 Volume:373 Page:889-895
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Kraemer Moritz U. G.¹^ORCID,Hill Verity²^ORCID,Ruis Christopher³^ORCID,Dellicour Simon⁴⁵⁶^ORCID,Bajaj Sumali¹^ORCID,McCrone John T.²^ORCID,Baele Guy⁵^ORCID,Parag Kris V.⁷^ORCID,Battle Anya Lindström⁸^ORCID,Gutierrez Bernardo¹^ORCID,Jackson Ben²^ORCID,Colquhoun Rachel²^ORCID,O’Toole Áine²^ORCID,Klein Brennan⁹^ORCID,Vespignani Alessandro⁹^ORCID,Volz Erik⁷^ORCID,Faria Nuno R.¹⁷¹⁰^ORCID,Aanensen David M.¹¹⁶^ORCID,Loman Nicholas J.¹²^ORCID,du Plessis Louis¹^ORCID,Cauchemez Simon¹³^ORCID,Rambaut Andrew²^ORCID,Scarpino Samuel V.⁹¹⁴¹⁵^ORCID,Pybus Oliver G.¹¹⁶^ORCID,

Affiliation:

1. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

2. Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

3. Molecular Immunity Unit, Department of Medicine, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.

4. Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium.

5. Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.

6. Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

7. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK.

8. Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

9. Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, USA.

10. Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

11. Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, UK.

12. Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.

13. Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.

14. Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, USA.

15. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, USA.

16. Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College London, London, UK.

Abstract

Fueling outbreaks The B.1.1.7 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused fast-spreading outbreaks globally. Intrinsically, this variant has greater transmissibility than its predecessors, but this capacity has been amplified in some circumstances to tragic effect by a combination of human behavior and local immunity. What are the extrinsic factors that help or hinder the rapid dissemination of variants? Kraemer et al . explored the invasion dynamics of B.1.1.7. in fine detail, from its location of origin in Kent, UK, to its heterogenous spread around the country. A combination of mobile phone and virus data including more than 17,000 genomes shows how distinct phases of dispersal were related to intensity of mobility and the timing of lockdowns. As the local outbreaks grew, importation from the London source area became less important. Had B.1.1.7. emerged at a slightly different time of year, its impact might have been different. —CA

Funder

Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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