An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Author:

Tian Huaiyu1,Liu Yonghong1,Li Yidan1ORCID,Wu Chieh-Hsi2ORCID,Chen Bin3ORCID,Kraemer Moritz U. G.456ORCID,Li Bingying1,Cai Jun7ORCID,Xu Bo7ORCID,Yang Qiqi1ORCID,Wang Ben1ORCID,Yang Peng8,Cui Yujun9,Song Yimeng10ORCID,Zheng Pai11,Wang Quanyi8,Bjornstad Ottar N.1213ORCID,Yang Ruifu9,Grenfell Bryan T.1415,Pybus Oliver G.4ORCID,Dye Christopher416ORCID

Affiliation:

1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

2. School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

3. Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.

4. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

5. Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.

6. Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.

7. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

8. Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.

9. State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.

10. Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

11. Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, China.

12. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

13. Department of Entomology, College of Agricultural Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

14. Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

15. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

16. Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Abstract

The most effective interventions By 23 January 2020, China had imposed a national emergency response to restrict travel and impose social distancing measures on its populace in an attempt to inhibit the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, which measures were most effective is uncertain. Tian et al. performed a quantitative analysis of the impact of control measures between 31 December 2019 and 19 February 2020, which encompasses the Lunar New Year period when millions of people traveled across China for family visits. Travel restrictions in and out of Wuhan were too late to prevent the spread of the virus to 262 cities within 28 days. However, the epidemic peaked in Hubei province on 4 February 2020, indicating that measures such as closing citywide public transport and entertainment venues and banning public gatherings combined to avert hundreds of thousands of cases of infection. It is unlikely that this decline happened because the supply of susceptible people was exhausted, so relaxing control measures could lead to a resurgence. Science , this issue p. 638

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST

Beijing Natural Science Foundation

Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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