Abrupt Climate Change-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Abrupt Climate Change

Published:2003-03-28 Issue:5615 Volume:299 Page:2005-2010
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Alley R. B.¹,Marotzke J.²,Nordhaus W. D.³,Overpeck J. T.⁴,Peteet D. M.⁵,Pielke R. A.⁶,Pierrehumbert R. T.⁷,Rhines P. B.⁸⁹,Stocker T. F.¹⁰,Talley L. D.¹¹,Wallace J. M.⁸

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geosciences and EMS Environment Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.

2. Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.

3. Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.

4. Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

5. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.

6. Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

7. Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.

8. Department of Atmospheric Sciences and

9. Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

10. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

11. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California–San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

Abstract

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference74 articles.

1. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change can be viewed at .

2. The National Research Council (NRC) report Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (65) provides a more comprehensive treatment of abrupt climate change with over 650 references. The members of the Panel on Abrupt Climate Change which prepared the NRC report are the authors of this review. The recommendations of the NRC report: Improve the fundamental knowledge base modeling instrumental and paleoclimatic data and statistical approaches related to abrupt climate change and investigate “no- regrets” strategies to reduce vulnerability. The report is available at .

3. Short-term climate stability is provided by the increase in longwave radiation emitted by Earth as it warms and reduction in emitted radiation as it cools. The large heat capacity and specific heats of water also contribute to very short term stability. Very long term stability likely occurs because the rate of production of CO 2 from volcanoes is nearly independent of Earth's surface temperature but the rate at which CO 2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical reaction with rocks increases with temperature which increases with atmospheric CO 2 (66).

4. W. S. Broecker The Glacial World According to Wally (Eldigio Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Palisades NY ed. 3 2002).

5. Ice-age cycles were caused by orbitally induced latitudinal and seasonal redistribution of sunlight that led to changes in the amount of sunlight reflected by Earth (through changes in snow and ice vegetation and probably clouds and dust) in the greenhouse-gas concentration of the atmosphere (primarily CO 2 and water vapor but including CH 4 and N 2 O) and perhaps in other factors (4).

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