A Tale of Two Futures: HIV and Antiretroviral Therapy in San Francisco-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

A Tale of Two Futures: HIV and Antiretroviral Therapy in San Francisco

Published:2000-01-28 Issue:5453 Volume:287 Page:650-654
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Blower S. M.¹,Gershengorn H. B.¹,Grant R. M.²

Affiliation:

1. Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 513 Parnassus, Box 0414, San Francisco, CA 94143–0414, USA.

2. Gladstone Institute of Virology and Immunology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94141–9100, USA.

Abstract

The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and averting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths in the San Francisco gay community over the next 10 years was predicted. A transmission model was coupled with a statistical approach that enabled inclusion of a high degree of uncertainty in the potential treatment effects of ART (in terms of infectivity and survival), increase in risky behavior, and rate of emergence of drug resistance. Increasing the usage of ART in San Francisco would decrease the AIDS death rate and could substantially reduce the incidence rate.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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