Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Biomass and Petroleum Energy Futures in Africa-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Biomass and Petroleum Energy Futures in Africa

Published:2005-04 Issue:5718 Volume:308 Page:98-103
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Bailis Robert¹²³,Ezzati Majid¹²³,Kammen Daniel M.¹²³

Affiliation:

1. Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3050, USA.

2. Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.

3. Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3050, USA.

Abstract

We analyzed the mortality impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by household energy use in Africa. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030. Gradual and rapid transitions to charcoal would delay 1.0 million and 2.8 million deaths, respectively; similar transitions to petroleum fuels would delay 1.3 million and 3.7 million deaths. Cumulative BAU GHG emissions will be 6.7 billion tons of carbon by 2050, which is 5.6% of Africa's total emissions. Large shifts to the use of fossil fuels would reduce GHG emissions by 1 to 10%. Charcoal-intensive future scenarios using current practices increase emissions by 140 to 190%; the increase can be reduced to 5 to 36% using currently available technologies for sustainable production or potentially reduced even more with investment in technological innovation.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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5. This estimate for China and India applies to woodfuels only. Households in China and India use more solid fuels than households in SSA but in forms other than woody biomass. In China crop residues are common fuels in rural areas and in India crop residues and dung are each used by roughly 10% of households ( 25 ). Many households in China and India use coal as their primary fuel which is also important for health and GHG impacts ( 10 ).

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