Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Published:2024-04-26 Issue:6694 Volume:384 Page:458-465
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Pereira Henrique M.¹²³^ORCID,Martins Inês S.¹²⁴^ORCID,Rosa Isabel M. D.¹²⁵,Kim HyeJin¹²⁶,Leadley Paul⁷^ORCID,Popp Alexander⁸⁹^ORCID,van Vuuren Detlef P.¹⁰¹¹^ORCID,Hurtt George¹²^ORCID,Quoss Luise¹²^ORCID,Arneth Almut¹³^ORCID,Baisero Daniele¹⁴¹⁵^ORCID,Bakkenes Michel¹⁰^ORCID,Chaplin-Kramer Rebecca¹⁶¹⁷^ORCID,Chini Louise¹²^ORCID,Di Marco Moreno¹⁴^ORCID,Ferrier Simon¹⁸^ORCID,Fujimori Shinichiro¹⁹²⁰^ORCID,Guerra Carlos A.¹²¹^ORCID,Harfoot Michael²²^ORCID,Harwood Thomas D.¹⁸²³^ORCID,Hasegawa Tomoko²⁰²⁴^ORCID,Haverd Vanessa¹⁸,Havlík Petr²⁵^ORCID,Hellweg Stefanie²⁶^ORCID,Hilbers Jelle P.¹⁰²⁷^ORCID,Hill Samantha L. L.²²²⁸^ORCID,Hirata Akiko²⁹³⁰^ORCID,Hoskins Andrew J.¹⁸³¹^ORCID,Humpenöder Florian⁸^ORCID,Janse Jan H.¹⁰³²^ORCID,Jetz Walter³³³⁴^ORCID,Johnson Justin A.³⁵^ORCID,Krause Andreas¹³³⁶^ORCID,Leclère David²⁵^ORCID,Matsui Tetsuya²⁹³⁰^ORCID,Meijer Johan R.¹⁰^ORCID,Merow Cory³⁷,Obersteiner Michael²³²⁵^ORCID,Ohashi Haruka²⁹^ORCID,De Palma Adriana²⁸^ORCID,Poulter Benjamin³⁸^ORCID,Purvis Andy²⁸³⁹^ORCID,Quesada Benjamin¹³⁴⁰^ORCID,Rondinini Carlo¹⁴^ORCID,Schipper Aafke M.¹⁰²⁷^ORCID,Settele Josef¹⁴¹⁴²^ORCID,Sharp Richard¹⁶^ORCID,Stehfest Elke¹⁰,Strassburg Bernardo B. N.⁴³⁴⁴,Takahashi Kiyoshi²⁰^ORCID,Talluto Matthew V.⁴⁵^ORCID,Thuiller Wilfried⁴⁶^ORCID,Titeux Nicolas¹⁴¹⁴⁷^ORCID,Visconti Piero²⁵⁴⁷⁴⁸^ORCID,Ware Christopher¹⁸,Wolf Florian¹²^ORCID,Alkemade Rob¹⁰⁴⁹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.

2. Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany.

3. BIOPOLIS, CIBIO/InBIO, Universidade do Porto, Vairão 4485-661, Portugal.

4. Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK.

5. Kenvue Portugal, JNTL Consumer Health Ltd, Porto Salvo 2740-262, Portugal.

6. UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK.

7. Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France.

8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany.

9. Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen D-37213, Germany.

10. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands.

11. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584 CB, Netherlands.

12. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.

13. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany.

14. Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy.

15. KBA Secretariat, BirdLife International, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.

16. Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.

17. Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

18. CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

19. Department of Environmental Engineering, Katsura Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto-city 615-8540, Japan.

20. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.

21. Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra 3004-530, Portugal.

22. United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.

23. Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.

24. Ritsumeikan University, Shiga 525-8577, Japan.

25. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria.

26. Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8093, Switzerland.

27. Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands.

28. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK.

29. Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan.

30. Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan.

31. James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia.

32. Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen 6700AB, Netherlands.

33. Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.

34. Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.

35. Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

36. Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Freising 85354, Germany.

37. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.

38. Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.

39. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.

40. “Interactions Climate-Ecosystems (ICE)” Research Group, Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá DC 63B-48, Colombia.

41. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany.

42. Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Laguna 4031, Philippines.

43. re.green, Rio de Janeiro 22470-060, Brazil.

44. Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, Brazil.

45. Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020, Austria.

46. Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine, Grenoble F-38000, France.

47. Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg.

48. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London C1E6BT, UK.

49. Earth System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6708PB Netherlands.

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Link

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.adn3441

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