Development and validation of a risk prediction model for invasiveness of pure ground-glass nodules based on a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background: Assessing the aggressiveness of pure ground glass nodules early on significantly aids in making informed clinical decisions. Objective: Developing a predictive model to assess the aggressiveness of pure ground glass nodules in lung adenocarcinoma is the study's goal. Methods: A comprehensive search for studies on the relationship between CT characteristics and the aggressiveness of pure ground glass nodules was conducted using databases such as PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Wanfang, CNKI, VIP, and CBM, up to December 20, 2023. Two independent researchers were responsible for screening literature, extracting data, and assessing the quality of the studies. Meta-analysis was performed using Stata 20.0, with the training data derived from this analysis. To identify publication bias, Begg's test were employed. This meta-analysis facilitated the creation of a risk prediction model for invasive adenocarcinoma in pure ground glass nodules. Data on clinical presentation and CT imaging features of patients treated surgically for these nodules at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, from September 2020 to September 2023, were compiled and scrutinized using specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The model's effectiveness for predicting invasive adenocarcinoma risk in pure ground glass nodules was validated using ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision analysis curves. Results: In this analysis, 17 studies were incorporated. Key variables included in the model were the largest diameter of the lesion, average CT value, presence of pleural traction, and spiculation. The derived formula from the meta-analysis was: 1.16×the largest lesion diameter + 0.01 × the average CT value + 0.66 ×pleural traction + 0.44 × spiculation. This model underwent validation using an external set of 512 pure ground glass nodules, demonstrating robustness with an ROC curve area of 0.880 (95% CI: 0.852-0.909). The calibration curve indicated accurate predictions, and the decision analysis curve suggested high clinical applicability of the model. Conclusion: We established a predictive model for determining the invasiveness of pure ground-glass nodules, incorporating four key radiological indicators. This model is both straightforward and effective for identifying patients with a high likelihood of invasive adenocarcinoma.