Burdens of liver cancer in young adults worldwide from 1990 to 2019, and predictions from 2020 to 2030

Abstract

Abstract Background This study was to investigate the prevalence of liver cancer among individuals aged 15–49 globally and predict future trends in its burden until 2030. Methods The age-standardized indicators and their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated in this study. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were employed to predict the burdens for the period of 2020–2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the burden of liver cancer increased significantly among individuals aged 35–49, with the highest peak observed among those aged 45–49. The burden was higher in men compared to women. During the same period, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate of liver cancer in young adults showed the greatest increase in Central Asia, while the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate increased the most in Eastern Europe. Among the 204 countries examined, Uzbekistan had the highest increase in ASIR of liver cancer in young adults. Furthermore, using GAMs, we predicted that from 2020 to 2030, the burden of liver cancer will continue to rise among individuals aged 30–34 and 35–39. Notably, the burden of liver cancer attributed to alcohol use is projected to increase significantly between 2020 and 2030. Conclusions The burden of liver cancer among young adults has shown an age-dependent increase in 2019, with men experiencing a greater burden compared to women. The projected estimates indicate a rise in the burden of liver cancer attributed to alcohol consumption among young adults, specifically from 2020 to 2030.