Predictive Value of ICU Patients' Mortality Based on Serum Ionized Ca Rather Than Total Ca in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Insights from MIMIC-IV Database Analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background While serum Ca has proven to be a reliable predictor of mortality across various diseases, its connection with the clinical outcomes of ischemic stroke (IS) remains inconclusive. Our research aimed to explore the relationships between serum total Ca (tCa) and serum ionized Ca (iCa) and mortality among acute IS (AIS) patients. Methods We gathered data from 1773 AIS patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database IV, including baseline demographic data, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory-based data, and scoring systems. Endpoints for the study encompassed 30-d, 90-d, and 365-d all-cause mortalities. Employing restricted cubic spline Cox regression, we explored potential nonlinear relationships between admission serum iCa and tCa levels and mortality. Participants were categorized into four groups based on serum iCa and tCa quartiles. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was then conducted to evaluate the independent association of iCa and tCa quartiles with all-cause mortality. Results The restricted cubic spline revealed a U-shaped association between iCa and 30-d and 90-d mortality (P < 0.05), while the relationship between iCa and 365-d mortality was linear (P < 0.05). After adjusting for confounders, multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that the lowest serum iCa level quartile was independently associated with increased risks of 30-d, 90-d, and 365-d mortality. Similarly, the highest serum iCa level quartile was independently associated with increased risks of 30-d and 90-d mortality, but not 365-d mortality. Notably, serum tCa level showed no association with increased risks of 30-d, 90-d, and 365-d mortality. Conclusions Our findings suggest that serum iCa, rather than tCa, is linked to ischemic stroke prognosis. Both high and low serum iCa levels are associated with poor short-term prognosis, while only low serum iCa is associated with poor long-term prognosis in AIS patients.