Neotropical Realm Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda Under Climate Change and Implications for Future Food Security, Pest Management and Biodiversity

Abstract

Abstract The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E.Smith) in combination with climate change impacts poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, ecoregion habitat, and biodiversity in the Neotropical Realm. This study presents an assessment of the fall armyworm distribution in the Neotropics under the influence of climate change. To conduct this analysis our methodology used 19 bioclimatic variables, altitude, and land cover to evaluate the habitat suitability of fall armyworm across the Neotropics. By comparing four future climate scenarios against the current baseline scenario, we determined the potential changes in Gain, Unsuitability, Stability, and Loss of habitat for fall armyworm within the eight Neotropic ecoregions. The results have implications for both agricultural food security and biodiversity as the fall armyworm will continue to be a pest within the Neotropical Realm. Our findings emphasize the ongoing habitat suitability that is expected to persist and potentially expand in some Neotropic areas under the climate change scenarios. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies can be used to mitigate agricultural losses and combat food insecurity arising from this crop pest. FAW is an indiscriminate defoliator and its control will help reduce biodiversity loss from synergistic impacts of climate change altered habitats and pest insect defoliation.