Compound mortality impacts from extreme temperatures and pandemics

Abstract

Abstract Climate change and coronavirus-type pandemics are both major global health threats. Until now, no study has quantified the compound health consequences of the co-occurrence of these crises. We estimate the mortality attributable to short-term heat and cold events, which dominate the UK health burden from weather hazards, in England and Wales in the period 2020-2022, during which the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in terms of mortality. We show that temperature-related mortality exceeded COVID-19 mortality by 8% in South West England. Combined, extreme temperatures and COVID-19 led to 19 (in North West England) to 24 (in Wales) excess deaths per 100,000 population during heatwaves, and 80 (in Yorkshire and the Humber) to 127 (in East of England) excess deaths per 100,000 population during cold snaps. These numbers are at least ~2 times higher than the previous decade. Society must increase preparedness for compound health crises such as extreme weather coinciding with pandemics.