Risk effects of meteorological factors on human brucellosis in Jilin province, China, 2005-2019

Abstract

Abstract Background The impact of climate on zoonotic infectious diseases (or can be referred to as climate-sensitive zoonotic diseases) is confirmed. Seasonal distribution of brucellosis indicates meteorological factors have an important role in its epidemiology. Yet, research on brucellosis and climate change association is limited. Methods Monthly incidence data of brucellosis and monthly meteorological data (average temperature (℃), wind velocity (m/s), relative humidity (%), sunshine hours (h), air pressure (hPa), and rainfall (mm)) in Jilin province, China from 2005–2019 were collected. Use Spearman’s correlation analysis and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to estimate the lag and non-linearity effect of meteorological factors on the risk of brucellosis. Results A total of 24,921 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Jilin province from 2005–2019, with the peak epidemic period from April to June. Low temperature and low sunshine hours were protective factors for the brucellosis, where the minimum RR values were 0.50 (95% CI = 0.31–0.82) for − 13.7°C with 1 month lag and 0.61 (95% CI = 0.41–0.91) for 110.5h with 2 months lag, respectively. High temperature, high sunshine hours, and low wind velocity were risk factors for brucellosis. The maximum RR values were 2.91 (95% CI = 1.43–5.92, lag = 1, 25.7℃), 1.85 (95% CI = 1.23–2.80, lag = 2, 332.6h), and 1.68 (95% CI = 1.25–2.26, lag = 2, 1.4m/s). The trends in the impact of extreme temperature and extreme sunshine hours on the transmission of brucellosis were generally consistent. Conclusion High temperature, high sunshine hours, and low wind velocity were more beneficial to the activity of brucellosis with an obvious lag effect in Jilin province, China. The results will deepen the understanding of the relationship between climate and brucellosis and provide a reference for formulating relevant public health policies.