Seasonality of influenza incidences and its influence on meteorological factors and PM10 in Bangkok, Thailand during 2003-2019

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the seasonality pattern and association between meteorological factors and particulate matter (PM10) concentration, and influenza incidence in Bangkok, Thailand. We analyze monthly averaged temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, PM10 concentrations, and influenza cases collected from 2003 to 2019 using wavelet analysis and a generalized additive model (GAM). The wavelet transforms analysis shows the periodic patterns of influenza with distinct periods of 0.5 years prior to the influenza pandemic in 2009 and 0.5 and 1 year following the pandemic, demonstrating an important shift after the 2009 pandemic. The result also reveals a significant coherence between climate factors, PM10, and influenza incidence. By using the maximum lag time obtained from the wavelet analysis, our GAM model shows the linear relationships between PM10, relative humidity, precipitation, and influenza incidence, whereas temperature exhibits a nonlinear relationship with influenza cases. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the temporal dynamics of influenza seasonality driven by climate factors and PM10 during the past 17 years. This knowledge would be useful for planning clinical resources and supporting public health under the climate situation in Thailand.