Abstract
Prognostic predictive model for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is scarce. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for HFrEF patients. This retrospective cohort enrolled 211 eligible patients with HFrEF, the median follow-up of this cohort was 16 months, the one-year mortality rate was 26.1%(55/211). Cox regression showed that age, history of coronary artery disease (CAD), glucose (Glu), and the use of beta-blockers were independent predictors of the occurrence of all-cause mortality in patients with HFrEF after discharge. The cohort was divided into the development set (N = 120) and the validation set (N = 91) in a ratio of 6:4. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and cox regression screened out 4 variables for the development of the model, including age, sex, serum creatinine (sCr) and use of beta-blockers). A nomogram was constructed, it has a C indexes 0.76 (95%CI 0.67–0.84), AUC of ROC curve of 1 year mortality of the model was 0.79 (95%CI 0.68–0.89), indicating a good differentiation of the model. Calibration plot of the model was drawn and revealed a good calibration. The DCA plots showed that when the threshold probability was between 3 ~ 77% (development group), the model adds benefit to the patients. This model is sure to cast some light on clinical medicine for HFrEF.