Changing seroprevalence of Schistosomiasis japonica in China from 1982 to 2025

Abstract

Abstract Background Schistosomiasis is a tropical disease that seriously threatens human health. Achieving the goal of eliminating schistosomiasis in China by 2030 necessitates precise identification of endemic areas and high-risk populations. This study aimed to figure out the long-term trends of Schistosomiasis japonica seroprevalence in China from 1982 to 2020 and age and spatial variations. Additionally, to forecast the seroprevalence for 2021–2025. Methods Seroprevalence data were collected from literature databases and national schistosomiasis surveillance system. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence. Autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to forecast the seroprevalence from 2021 to 2025. Joinpoint model was used to identify changing trend and inflection point. Inverse distance weighted interpolation was used to determine the spatial distribution of seroprevalence in different periods. Results The seroprevalence decreased from 34.8% in 1982 to 2.4% in 2020 in China. ARIMA model predicted that the seroprevalence would stabilize at the level of around 2.0% for 2021–2025. Before 2006, the seroprevalence was higher in the middle age group, and a pattern of increasing with age was observed afterwards. The areas with high seroprevalence existed in Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake, Jianghan Plain, the Anhui branch of the Yangtze River and some localized mountainous regions in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. Conclusions There was a significant decline in the seroprevalence of Schistosomiasis japonica from 1982 to 2020 in China, and would remain at a low level in 2021–2025. Nevertheless, schistosomiasis has not been eradicated; thus, ongoing monitoring remains crucial, especially in endemic areas and with a particular focus on the elderly.