A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Mucosal Healing in Crohn's Disease in Children

Abstract

Abstract Purpose: To analyze the clinical risk factors and establish a non-invasive nomogram clinical prediction model for mucosal healing in children with Crohn's disease. Methods:The clinical data of patients aged 1–14 years with Crohn's disease were retrospectivelyanalyzed. Patients were divided into the mucosal healing and non-mucosal healing groups. General data, clinical symptoms, and laboratory examination results of the two groups were compared. The risk factors affecting mucosal healing were analyzed statistically, and nomogram models were established. Results: From January 2011 to June 2023, a total of 74 patients who were continuously diagnosed with Crohn's disease and underwent endoscopy and follow-up after treatment were included in the study. There were 41 patients in the mucosal healing group and 33 in the non-mucosal healing group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR),and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) were independent risk factors for mucosal healing; thus, they were included in the prediction model. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of the multivariate analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.942 (95% confidence interval: 0.842–0.950). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed that the decision graph had good calibration (P=0.708). Conclusion:A nomogram model was established based on three related factors (ESR, PLR, and CAR), which can be used to predict mucosal healing in children with Crohn’s disease after treatment, thus reducing the frequency of endoscopic examination.