Why did the influence of experts erode during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Abstract

In the face of protracted crises like climate change or pandemics, the influence of expert scientific projections on public policy is crucial yet evolves over time. This study offers an empirical demonstration of a previously fragmented theory: the diminishing influence of scientific projections on policy over time. Using a comprehensive mixed-method analysis, the article studies the relationship between expert projections, policy stringency and public support in Quebec during the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientific projections that put forward worst-case scenarios have a considerable impact on policies made in the early stages of a crisis. However, as these catastrophic projections instil a sense of fatalism as the crisis lasts, they inadvertently lead to diminished public support for both the policies and the scientific projections themselves. The implications of these findings for scientists and experts are discussed, highlighting the importance of adapting projections and knowledge communication strategies as the crisis unfolds.