MORTALITY FORECAST IN RUSSIA BASED ON MONITORING MAJOR SOCIAL DETERMINANTS

Abstract

The prospect for increasing life expectancy in Russia is far from being disputed by experts, however the growth rate, its sustainability and achievability of the target indicators trigger extensive discussion in the scientific community. The purpose of the study is to develop a Russian mortality forecast until 2050 based on the hypotheses about effective monitoring over its major social determinants. Material and methods. Based on the material analysis of the Comprehensive monitoring over living conditions of the population, the author has assessed relevance of the National project measures in relation to the determinants of public health through self-assessment of living conditions and lifestyle. Two forecast scenarios have been developed. Results. In line with the "based on the current trends" scenario, life expectancy in Russia by 2050 may add up to 85.4 years in males and 87.7 years in females, mainly due to a significant drop in mortality in working ages and a shift of the beginning of the noticeable increase in mortality towards people aged over 70. According to the “taking into account additional policy measures" scenario, the male life expectancy can equal to 91.3 years and 93.9 years in females due to gaining almost a total control over mainly exogenous factors of mortality and reducing mortality to the minimum up to 75-80 years.