Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature of Periyar River Basin

Abstract

Abstract The Periyar River Basin, located in the southern part of India, is an ecologically significant region characterized by diverse flora and fauna. Understanding the long-term trends of rainfall and temperature in this basin is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on its hydrological system and ecosystem dynamics. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in the Periyar River Basin, using historical climate data spanning several decades. Rainfall analysis revealed substantial inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability in the basin. The Mann-Kendall trend test was employed to detect significant trends in annual and seasonal rainfall. The results indicated a variable trend in the annual rainfall, particularly during the monsoon season, which could have potential implications for water availability and agricultural practices. Temperature trends were analysed using statistical techniques such as linear regression and the Sen’s slope estimator. The results demonstrated a clear warming trend in the basin, with a significant increase in mean annual temperatures. In contrast to the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, it was discovered that the pace of warming was higher in the winter and pre-monsoon seasons. These temperature trends have important implications for the hydrological regime, ecosystem dynamics, and agricultural practices in the basin. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the changing climate patterns in the Periyar River Basin. The observed variation in annual rainfall and the increasing temperature trends underscore the need for sustainable water resource management strategies, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and conservation measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on the basin’s ecosystems and human livelihoods. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers, water resource managers, and stakeholders involved in the sustainable development of the Periyar River Basin and other similar regions worldwide.