Risk analysis in the management of forest fire in Russia

Abstract

Abstract In the Russians forests, from 10 to 15 thousand forest fires are annually registered, and according to forecasts, the tendency of increasing damage from fires in the country’s forests will grow. The final annual damage from forest fires in 2010 amounted to 550.4 thousand hectares of forest covered by fire. The article discusses the risks of forest fires determined by a combination of natural, economic and social factors. Based on an expert survey, an assessment was made of the probability of occurrence of risk events taking into account the categories of forests in Russia. The expert assessment used two criteria - the probability of a forest fire and the extent of expected losses from the occurrence of risk. It is shown that the most vulnerable to forest fires are forests located near homes, social and industrial facilities, as well as recreational forests. Three categories of forests have been proposed for the purpose of continuous monitoring of fire danger, firstly, forests located near dwellings, social and industrial facilities, secondly, forests with a developed network of roads and having a high level of timber value.