The impact of climate change to occupational safety and health: future projections of thermal discomfort (humidex index) in the West Attica region

Abstract

Abstract There is a growing concern on the implications of climate change on thermal stress, which in turn may affect workspace morale and performance, leading to lower productivity, or even posing a higher risk for employee’s health. In this paper, we study this aspect of climate change providing evidence on future projections of the Humidex Index (HI) for the West Attica Region, an overpopulated and industrialized area of Greece, which holds the World Meteorological Organization record for the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe. The current study is based on the use of the high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to determine changes in the trends of extreme heat conditions under future scenarios analysis. Projections of future climate regional analysis for the mid-twenty-first century (2021-2045) indicate an increase in the yearly/daily values of maximum air temperatures (Τmax) and HI index values. In addition, the analysis reveal shorter return periods for the specific design thresholds of Tmax and of the HI index as associated with an increase in the number of events above thresholds for both RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 future scenarios. The anticipated (extreme) heat conditions expose the occupational safety and health (OSH) at high risk, and the paper provide suggestions for applied interventions in the direction of a safer working environment.