Evaluation of political risk factors influencing energy supply disruption

Author:

Soliman J,Lopez N S,Biona J B M

Abstract

Abstract High dependence on imported energy supply makes a country vulnerable to risks of supply disruption. Disruptions can be in the form of government policies, external conflicts, and natural calamities. Several indicators quantifying the probability of supply disruption were proposed in past studies based on a defined set of criteria. However, factors influencing the behavior of energy exports vary per country. In this study, 12 political risk components were investigated and correlated with historical oil-export data to assess the main drivers dictating export behavior. A case study was conducted on Philippine crude oil suppliers from 2001 to 2015, and three countries were elaborated for further discussion. Results showed that oil exports are strongly correlated with internal and external conflicts in Saudi Arabia; internal conflicts in Venezuela; and socioeconomic conditions in Russian Federation. The study recommends utilizing the developed methodology to aid estimation of energy security costs based on various political risk scenarios.

Publisher

IOP Publishing

Subject

General Engineering

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3