Does intraday high-frequency investor sentiment help forecast stock returns? Evidence from the MIDAS models

Author:

Chu XiaojunORCID,Gu Yating

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to enhance the predictability of stock returns. Existing studies have used investor sentiment to forecast stock returns. However, it is unclear whether high-frequency intraday investor sentiment can enhance the forecasting performance of low-frequency stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThus, we employ the MIDAS model and the high-frequency intraday sentiment extracted from the Internet stock forum to forecast Chinese A-shares returns at daily frequency.FindingsThe results illustrate that high-frequency sentiment data are better than daily sentiment data in predicting daily stock returns, and the sentiment in non-trading hours has been proved superior to those in trading hours.Originality/valueFirst, our study adds to the growing literature on investor sentiment. We are the first to construct a proxy for high-frequency investor sentiment using intraday postings collected from Chinese Internet stock forum. Second, we confirm that sentiment in non-trading hours has a stronger predictive ability than those in trading hours. Third, we also contribute to the performance comparison of MIDAS-class models. The good performance of U-MIDAS is confirmed in our empirical applications.

Publisher

Emerald

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