Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand

Abstract

Significance The age of reported dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, the severe form of dengue infections, has been increasing in Thailand for four decades. Factors underlying this shift remain poorly understood, challenging public health planning. Here, we found aging of the population and its effect on the hazard of transmission to be the dominant contributors, with temporal changes in surveillance practices playing a lesser role. With ongoing population aging, we expect a continuing shift of DHF toward older individuals, heightening the chance of clinical complications with comorbidities. With most other highly endemic countries facing similar shifts in age structure, the pattern is expected to appear elsewhere. Awareness is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment.