Mask wearing in community settings reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Author:

Leech Gavin1ORCID,Rogers-Smith Charlie2,Monrad Joshua Teperowski3,Sandbrink Jonas B.34,Snodin Benedict3ORCID,Zinkov Robert5,Rader Benjamin6ORCID,Brownstein John S.7,Gal Yarin8,Bhatt Samir910,Sharma Mrinank31112,Mindermann Sören8ORCID,Brauner Jan M.38,Aitchison Laurence1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, United Kingdom

2. External collaborator to Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning Group, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

3. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

4. Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

5. Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

6. Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA 02215

7. Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115

8. Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

9. Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1165 Copenhagen, Denmark

10. Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, United Kingdom

11. Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

12. Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom

Abstract

Significance We resolve conflicting results regarding mask wearing against COVID-19. Most previous work focused on mask mandates; we study the effect of mask wearing directly. We find that population mask wearing notably reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission (mean mask-wearing levels corresponding to a 19% decrease in R). We use the largest wearing survey (n = 20 million) and obtain our estimates from regions across six continents. We account for nonpharmaceutical interventions and time spent in public, and quantify our uncertainty. Factors additional to mask mandates influenced the worldwide early uptake of mask wearing. Our analysis goes further than past work in the quality of wearing data–100 times the size with random sampling–geographical scope, a semimechanistic infection model, and the validation of our results.

Funder

RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Open Philanthropy Project

University of Oxford

DeepMind

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Community Jameel

UKRI

Academy of Medical Sciences

RCUK | Medical Research Council

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust

Novo Nordisk

DH | National Institute for Health Research

Cancer Research UK

HHS | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Flu Lab

Ending Pandemics

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference59 articles.

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3. 42 Federal Register 84 (1995) pp. 1–311.

4. Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

5. An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19

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