Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve

Abstract

Significance During the COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers are grappling with how to reopen (and possibly reclose) their jurisdictions as the number of cases ebbs and flows. Establishing a criterion for each county/municipality to open and close based on their case count has appeal, given the wide disparity in COVID-19 rates in urban versus rural settings. Our simulation model is based on the geography, epidemiology, and travel patterns of Ontario, Canada. It shows that the county-by-county approach causes fewer days of closure and impacts fewer people than a strategy that opens or closes the entire province together. This is true even if individuals begin traveling to reopened counties with higher frequency. The county-by-county strategy is most effective when the criteria are coordinated.