How production networks amplify economic growth

Author:

McNerney James123ORCID,Savoie Charles4,Caravelli Francesco5ORCID,Carvalho Vasco M.6789ORCID,Farmer J. Doyne41011ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139;

2. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02142;

3. Complexity Science Hub Vienna, A-1080 Vienna, Austria;

4. Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom;

5. Theoretical Division (T-4 and Center for Nonlinear Studies), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545;

6. Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom;

7. The Cambridge-INET (Institute for New Economic Thinking) Institute, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom;

8. The Alan Turing Institute, London NW1 2DB, United Kingdom;

9. Center for Economic and Policy Research, London EC1V 0DX, United Kingdom;

10. Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3LB, United Kingdom;

11. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501

Abstract

Significance Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this network amplifies the effects of technological improvements as they propagate along chains of production. Longer production chains for an industry bias it toward faster price reduction, and longer production chains for a country bias it toward faster growth. These predictions are in good agreement with data and improve with the passage of time, demonstrating a key influence of production chains in price change and output growth over the long term.

Funder

National Science Foundation

European Commission

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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