Human Population Dynamics in Archaeological Time: Some Simple Models

Abstract

Birdsell (1968:231) summarizes qualitative predictions for the dynamics of Pleistocene hunter-gatherer populations. He concludes that population density should respond rapidly to changes in biotic and climatic parameters; that “populations would tend to overshoot carrying capacity as they restore their numbers from a depressed condition,” and that so long as unoccupied areas existed, population density would be regulated at a level well below carrying capacity (see also Binford 1968). We believe that these conclusions can be strengthened and quantified by formal mathematical analysis of reasonable demographic models. The results of this analysis have several important implications for archaeological theory and methodology. Formal models of population dynamics usually lead to predictions of population behavior over time intervals on the order of the generation time of the organism or longer. Since our direct knowledge of population history of regions is usually in proportion to the amount of recent disruption, archaeology can test and exploit theory in a manner denied ethnology.