Abstract
The changes in energy balance resulting from land-use change may significantly affect the amount and timing of water loss to the atmosphere as evapotranspiration (ET). Also, these will impact water fluxes in the watershed system, influencing runoff rate, flow volume, intensity, and frequency of floods. During the past century, land-use change in the SuAsCo (Sudbury-Assabet and Concord) watershed has altered basin hydrology, sediment, and nutrient load that is detrimental to water resources in SuAsCo. This study uses an integrated physically-based model Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), along with Land Transformation Model (LTM), to assess predicted temporal and spatial changes in water, nutrient, and sediment yields for future land-use scenarios of 2035, 2065, and 2100. Results showed that a 75% increase in effective impervious area and a 50% decrease in forest area in 2100 (from 2005 baseline levels) are projected to cause a 3% increase in annual streamflow and a 69% increase in total yearly mean surface runoff. The average annual total suspended solid (TSS) yield at the watershed outlet is estimated to increase by 54% in 2100. An increase of 12% and 13% concentrations of average annual total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) are predicted by 2100 due to urban expansion and increased runoff volume. This integrated modeling approach will inform watershed managers and landowners about critical areas of the SuAsCo watershed to apply best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate the effects of land-use land cover (LULC) change.
Funder
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Fulbright Association
Office of Integrative Activities
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Reference124 articles.
1. Process controls of water balance variability in a large semi-arid catchment: Downward approach to hydrological model development;C Jothityangkoon;J Hydrol,2001
2. Reidsma P, Tekelenburg T, Van Den Berg M, Alkemade R. Impacts of land-use change on biodiversity: An assessment of agricultural biodiversity in the European Union. In: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 2006.
3. Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic responses in the Great Lakes region;D Mao;J Hydrol,2009
4. The impact of pre-restoration land-use and disturbance on sediment structure, hydrology and the sediment geochemical environment in restored saltmarshes;KL Spencer;Sci Total Environ,2017
5. Influence of land use change on nitrate sources and pollutant enrichment in surface and groundwater of a growing urban area in Tanzania;CL Mallya;Environ Earth Sci,2021
Cited by
7 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献