Research on the changes and predictions of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Pacific Island countries from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Aims To assess the burden of type 2 diabetes in Pacific Island countries and predict future trends. Methods We analyzed and processed data using R and Excel software, performed Joinpoint 4.7.0 software analysis to investigate changing trends in disease burden, and used an autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast future trends. Results Our study showed that from 1990 to 2019, the burden of type 2 diabetes in Pacific Island countries continues to increase, with the standardized incidence rate showing the most significant growth. Moreover, there were significant differences in the burden of type 2 diabetes between regions. In 2019, American Samoa had the highest standardized incidence rate, while Fiji had the highest standardized death rate and disability-adjusted life year rate. The standardized incidence rate peaked at ages 65–69 years, while the standardized death rate and disability-adjusted life year rate peaked at ages 95 years and 70–74 years respectively. Type 2 diabetes burden was higher among males than females. Based on our forecasting, from 2020 to 2030, the standardized incidence rate is expected to continue to rise, while the standardized death rate and disability-adjusted life year rate will slowly decline. Conclusions Our study highlights that the burden of type 2 diabetes in Pacific Island countries has been increasing from 1990 to 2019. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen disease prevention and control measures in the region.