Identification of dynamical changes of rabies transmission under quarantine: Community-based measures towards rabies elimination
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Published:2023-12-15
Issue:12
Volume:19
Page:e1011187
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ISSN:1553-7358
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Container-title:PLOS Computational Biology
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language:en
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Short-container-title:PLoS Comput Biol
Author:
Rysava KristynaORCID,
Tildesley Michael J.
Abstract
Quarantine has been long used as a public health response to emerging infectious diseases, particularly at the onset of an epidemic when the infected proportion of a population remains identifiable and logistically tractable. In theory, the same logic should apply to low-incidence infections; however, the application and impact of quarantine in low prevalence settings appears less common and lacks a formal analysis. Here, we present a quantitative framework using a series of progressively more biologically realistic models of canine rabies in domestic dogs and from dogs to humans, a suitable example system to characterize dynamical changes under varying levels of dog quarantine. We explicitly incorporate health-seeking behaviour data to inform the modelling of contact-tracing and exclusion of rabies suspect and probable dogs that can be identified through bite-histories of patients presenting at anti-rabies clinics. We find that a temporary quarantine of rabies suspect and probable dogs provides a powerful tool to curtail rabies transmission, especially in settings where optimal vaccination coverage is yet to be achieved, providing a critical stopgap to reduce the number of human and animal deaths due to rabid bites. We conclude that whilst comprehensive measures including sensitive surveillance and large-scale vaccination of dogs will be required to achieve disease elimination and sustained freedom given the persistent risk of rabies re-introductions, quarantine offers a low-cost community driven solution to intersectoral health burden.
Funder
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
EPSRC
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subject
Computational Theory and Mathematics,Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience,Genetics,Molecular Biology,Ecology,Modeling and Simulation,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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