Modelling disease mitigation at mass gatherings: A case study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
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Published:2024-01-18
Issue:1
Volume:20
Page:e1011018
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ISSN:1553-7358
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Container-title:PLOS Computational Biology
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language:en
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Short-container-title:PLoS Comput Biol
Author:
Grunnill MartinORCID,
Arino JulienORCID,
McCarthy ZacharyORCID,
Bragazzi Nicola Luigi,
Coudeville Laurent,
Thommes Edward W.,
Amiche Amine,
Ghasemi AbbasORCID,
Bourouiba Lydia,
Tofighi MohammadaliORCID,
Asgary Ali,
Baky-Haskuee Mortaza,
Wu Jianhong
Abstract
The 2022 FIFA World Cup was the first major multi-continental sporting Mass Gathering Event (MGE) of the post COVID-19 era to allow foreign spectators. Such large-scale MGEs can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and contribute to the global dissemination of such pathogens. Here we adapt previous work and create a generalisable model framework for assessing the use of disease control strategies at such events, in terms of reducing infections and hospitalisations. This framework utilises a combination of meta-populations based on clusters of people and their vaccination status, Ordinary Differential Equation integration between fixed time events, and Latin Hypercube sampling. We use the FIFA 2022 World Cup as a case study for this framework (modelling each match as independent 7 day MGEs). Pre-travel screenings of visitors were found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations. With pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff being more effective. Rapid Antigen (RA) screenings 0.5 days before match day performed similarly to RT-PCR screenings 1.5 days before match day. Combinations of pre-travel and pre-match testing led to improvements. However, a policy of ensuring that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure proved to be much more efficacious. The State of Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. Given our findings and the spike in cases, we suggest a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination should have been in place to reduce cases and hospitalisations.
Funder
Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
National Science Foundation
Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation Initiative
Canada Research Chairs
Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subject
Computational Theory and Mathematics,Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience,Genetics,Molecular Biology,Ecology,Modeling and Simulation,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics