Machine learning algorithms’ application to predict childhood vaccination among children aged 12–23 months in Ethiopia: Evidence 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey dataset

Abstract

Introduction Childhood vaccination is a cost-effective public health intervention to reduce child mortality and morbidity. But, vaccination coverage remains low, and previous similar studies have not focused on machine learning algorithms to predict childhood vaccination. Therefore, knowledge extraction, association rule formulation, and discovering insights from hidden patterns in vaccination data are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to predict childhood vaccination among children aged 12–23 months using the best machine learning algorithm. Methods A cross-sectional study design with a two-stage sampling technique was used. A total of 1617 samples of living children aged 12–23 months were used from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey dataset. The data was pre-processed, and 70% and 30% of the observations were used for training, and evaluating the model, respectively. Eight machine learning algorithms were included for consideration of model building and comparison. All the included algorithms were evaluated using confusion matrix elements. The synthetic minority oversampling technique was used for imbalanced data management. Informational gain value was used to select important attributes to predict childhood vaccination. The If/ then logical association was used to generate rules based on relationships among attributes, and Weka version 3.8.6 software was used to perform all the prediction analyses. Results PART was the first best machine learning algorithm to predict childhood vaccination with 95.53% accuracy. J48, multilayer perceptron, and random forest models were the consecutively best machine learning algorithms to predict childhood vaccination with 89.24%, 87.20%, and 82.37% accuracy, respectively. ANC visits, institutional delivery, health facility visits, higher education, and being rich were the top five attributes to predict childhood vaccination. A total of seven rules were generated that could jointly determine the magnitude of childhood vaccination. Of these, if wealth status = 3 (Rich), adequate ANC visits = 1 (yes), and residency = 2 (Urban), then the probability of childhood vaccination would be 86.73%. Conclusions The PART, J48, multilayer perceptron, and random forest algorithms were important algorithms for predicting childhood vaccination. The findings would provide insight into childhood vaccination and serve as a framework for further studies. Strengthening mothers’ ANC visits, institutional delivery, improving maternal education, and creating income opportunities for mothers could be important interventions to enhance childhood vaccination.