Effect of climate change on soil erosion rate in a tropical Indian catchment

Abstract

Abstract This study analyzes the variations in soil erosion rate in a tropical catchment in India using the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model integrated with climate change scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) included in the NEX Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 dataset for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126 and SSP 585. A set of seven GCMs are initially selected. Based on their ability to simulate the rainfall for the current scenario, the PROMETHEE-II method is used to rank the GCMs and the top four best-performing models are used for further analysis. Soil erosion rates projected for the future climate scenarios are compared with the current scenario. In the near future and in the middle of the century, soil erosion rates under the SSP 126 scenario are projected to be higher than that under the SSP 585 scenario. The ensemble average soil erosion rate is projected to increase by 15.41%–25.94% toward the end of the century for different emission scenarios, and the areas susceptible to high and very high soil erosion rates are projected to increase to 40.3%.