Assessment of MC&MCMC uncertainty analysis frameworks on SWAT model by focusing on future runoff prediction in a mountainous watershed via CMIP5 models

Abstract

Abstract The river situation in a dry or semi-dry area is extremely affected by climate change and precipitation patterns. In this study, the impact of climate alteration on runoff in Kashafrood River Basin (KRB) in Iran was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in historical and three future period times. The runoff was studied by MIROC-ESM and GFDL-ESM2G models as the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM-ZS) was used to calibrate the hydrological model parameters in different sub-basins. Using DREAM-ZS algorithm, realistic values were obtained for the parameters related to runoff simulation in the SWAT model. In this area, results show that runoff in GFDL-ESM2G in both RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) in comparing future periods with the historical period is increased about 232–383% and in MIROC-ESM tends to increase around 87–292%. Furthermore, GFDL-ESM2G compared to MIROC-ESM in RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) in near, intermediate, and far future periods shows that the value of runoff increases 59.6% (23.0%), 100.2% (35.1%), and 42.5% (65.3%), respectively.