Comparison of early warning and sepsis scores for mortality prediction in patients with suspected infection admitted to medical intensive care units

Abstract

Aims: To compare the mortality prediction efficiency of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) calculated within 48 hours before ICU admission. Methods: A prospective, noninterventional, observational cohort study enrolled adult patients admitted to medical intensive care units (ICU) with suspected infection in a tertiary care medical center. MEWS SIRS, SOFA, and qSOFA scores were calculated at four different time points: 48, 24, and 8 hours before and at the time of the ICU admission (0. hour). The scores were analyzed for hospital mortality. Results: A total of 120 patients were included. The median age was 68 (IQR 59.8-79) years, and 44.2% of patients were male. Of the study population, 75.8% were admitted to the medical ICU from the emergency department, while the remaining were from the medical wards. Considering the scores observed 48 hours before ICU admission, Odds Ratio (OR) of SIRS≥2 and SOFA≥2 showed a value of 7.6 (95% CI: 1.5-38.0) and 13.2 (95% CI: 2.3-74.3), respectively, while no increase in risk was observed for MEWS and the qSOFA score. Receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) performed with the highest scores observed at any time within 48 hours before ICU admission (ICU admission values were omitted) regarding hospital mortality yielded area under the curve (AUC) values (95% CI) of 0.80 (0.72-0.89) for SOFA, 0.66 (0.54-0.76) for MEWS, 0.63 (0.51-0.74) for qSOFA, and 0.61 (0.49-0.73) for SIRS. SOFA had the highest sensitivity of 92.6% (82.7-100.0), whereas qSOFA had the highest specificity of 63.0% (49.1-77.0) for hospital mortality. Conclusion: SOFA score is the most sensitive scoring system to predict hospital mortality in patients admitted to the medical ICU with suspected infection compared to MEWS, SIRS, and qSOFA. Nevertheless, the sepsis and early warning scores should be combined in clinical practice whenever possible.