Principles and uses of HIV incidence estimation from recent infection testing - a review

Abstract

Since the 1990s, the development of laboratory-based methods has allowed to estimate incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections on single samples. The tests aim to differentiate recent from established HIV infection. Incidence estimates are obtained by using the relationship between prevalence, incidence and duration of recent infection. We describe the principle of the methods and typical uses of these tests to characterise recent infection and derive incidence. We discuss the challenges in interpreting estimates and we consider the implications for surveillance systems. Overall, these methods can add remarkable value to surveillance systems based on prevalence surveys as well as HIV case reporting. The assumptions that must be fulfilled to correctly interpret the estimates are mostly similar to those required in prevalence measurement. However, further research on the specific aspect of window period estimation is needed in order to generalise these methods in various population settings.