Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

Author:

Grint Daniel J1ORCID,Wing Kevin1,Williamson Elizabeth1,McDonald Helen I1,Bhaskaran Krishnan1,Evans David2,Evans Stephen JW1,Walker Alex J2,Hickman George2,Nightingale Emily3,Schultze Anna1,Rentsch Christopher T1,Bates Chris4,Cockburn Jonathan4,Curtis Helen J2,Morton Caroline E2,Bacon Sebastian2,Davy Simon2,Wong Angel YS1,Mehrkar Amir2,Tomlinson Laurie1,Douglas Ian J1,Mathur Rohini1,Blomquist Paula5,MacKenna Brian2,Ingelsby Peter2,Croker Richard2,Parry John4,Hester Frank4,Harper Sam4,DeVito Nicholas J2,Hulme Will2,Tazare John1,Goldacre Ben62,Smeeth Liam61,Eggo Rosalind M61

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

2. The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

3. Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

4. The Phoenix Partnership (TPP), TPP House, Leeds, United Kingdom

5. COVID-19 Outbreak Surveillance Team, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom

6. These authors contributed equally

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

Reference13 articles.

1. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.;Davies;Science,2021

2. Regression models and life‐tables.;Cox;J R Stat Soc B,1972

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