Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

Published:2020-03-26 Issue:12 Volume:25 Page:
ISSN:1560-7917
Container-title:Eurosurveillance
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Guzzetta Giorgio¹,Poletti Piero¹,Ajelli Marco¹,Trentini Filippo¹,Marziano Valentina¹,Cereda Danilo²,Tirani Marcello³²,Diurno Giulio²,Bodina Annalisa²,Barone Antonio²,Crottogini Lucia²,Gramegna Maria²,Melegaro Alessia⁴⁵,Merler Stefano⁴¹

Affiliation:

1. Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy

2. Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy

3. Health Protection Agency of Pavia, Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Pavia, Italy

4. These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.

5. Bocconi University, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Milan, Italy

Abstract

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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