Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes: Factoring in Opposition Party Strategy

Abstract

Abstract Midterm congressional elections are referenda on the president not by happenstance but by design, as the opposition party and its candidates attack the administration when political conditions provide the opportunity. Models for explaining and predicting the number of seats won by the president’s party incorporating the number of seats held before the election, prior election results, change in status of the economy, and presidential evaluation data conditioned by strategy of the opposition party are presented. These models improve upon traditional models of midterm election explanations and predictions, providing parsimonious, theory-driven, and accurate models of midterm election outcomes.