Is the World Running Out of Fresh Water?

Abstract

The quantity of water within Earth and its atmosphere is fixed over time, but water available for human consumption evolves dynamically. We use globally comprehensive geospatial data to establish stylized facts about recent changes in global water resources and potential implications for human welfare. We show that the net change in water volume on arable lands—which account for 90 percent of human water consumption—is almost exactly zero. Rapid water loss is concentrated in regions with large populations, low existing water resources, and low agronomic potential. Incorporating trade data shows that water-scarce regions are net importers of water-intensive goods.