More than Words: Leaders’ Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic

Author:

Ajzenman Nicolás1,Cavalcanti Tiago2,Da Mata Daniel3

Affiliation:

1. McGill, IZA, and São Paulo School of Economics-FGV (email: )

2. University of Cambridge, CEPR, and São Paulo School of Economics-FGV (email: )

3. São Paulo School of Economics-FGV (email: )

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the anti-scientific rhetoric of modern populists can induce followers to engage in risky behavior. We gather electoral information, credit card expenses, and geo-localized mobile phone data for approximately 60 million devices in Brazil. After the president publicly dismissed the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic and challenged scientific recommendations, social distancing in pro-government localities declined. Consistently, credit card expenses increased immediately. Results are driven by localities with higher media penetration levels, active Twitter accounts, and a larger proportion of evangelical Christians, a critical electoral group. (JEL D72, D91, I12, I18, L82, O15, Z12)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Reference58 articles.

1. History, Expectations, and Leadership in the Evolution of Social Norms

2. ACLED. 2021. Data on Protests. https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool/ (accessed on June 1, 2021).

3. The Power of Example: Corruption Spurs Corruption

4. Ajzenman, Nicolás, Tiago Cavalcanti, and Daniel Da Mata. 2023. "Replication data for: More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic." American Economic Association [publisher], Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]. https://doi. org/10.38886/E171661V1.

5. Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic

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