Water Hazards: Drought and Flood

Abstract

AbstractDroughts and floods are the main threats to the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB). Drought mainly occurs during the dry season, especially in March and April, in the LMRB. The “dry gets drier” paradigm performs well in the LMRB, specifically in the Mekong Delta. Further, flood frequency and magnitude, which are determined by heavy rain, are also increasing in the LMRB. Droughts and floods show obvious seasonal and regional characteristics in the LMRB. The LMRB is a well-known rainstorm-flood basin. Floods in the LMRB are mainly caused by heavy rain. The LMRB is dominated by regional floods, and basin-wide floods rarely occur. From upstream to downstream, the flood peak and flood volume have shown increasing trends. Meanwhile, moving further downstream, the flood season ends later. In the upstream areas, floods are mainly concentrated in the period from July to October, with the highest probability of floods occurring in August. For the downstream areas, the flood season is from August to October. Climate change is one of the major factors affecting the LMRB’s droughts and floods. Global warming is an indisputable fact. Under global warming, extreme hydrological events show a tendency to increase. Climate models have suggested a future potential for increased flood frequency, magnitude, and inundation in the LMRB by 10–140%, 5–44% and 19–43%, respectively. Although the severity and duration of droughts are also increasing, the differences in drought indicators projected by different climate models are significant. Hydropower development was another major factor affecting droughts and floods in the LMRB. Large-scale hydropower development has drastically changed streamflow characteristics since 2009, causing increased dry season flow (+150%) and decreased wet season flow (−25%), as well as reduced flood magnitude (−2.3  to  −29.7%) and frequency (−8.2 to −74.1%). Large-scale reservoirs will have a profound impact on hydrological characteristics, droughts and floods, agriculture, fisheries, energy supply, and environmental protection in the LMRB. Coupling climate models and hydrological models is the main way to study the impact of climate change and reservoir operation in the LMRB. Climate change indirectly affects hydrological characteristics by affecting meteorological parameters, while reservoirs can directly change the propagation from meteorological extreme events to hydrological extreme events by releasing/storing water in different situations. Hydrological models are the link connecting and quantifying the coupled effects of climate change and reservoirs. More studies are needed to develop a comprehensive understanding of the future impacts of climate change and reservoir operation on extreme events in the LMRB, as well as adaptation and mitigation measures.