A model to predict delivery time following induction of labor at term with a dinoprostone vaginal insert: a retrospective study

Abstract

Abstract Background Dinoprostone vaginal insert is the most common pharmacological method for induction of labor (IOL); however, studies on assessing the time to vaginal delivery (DT) following dinoprostone administration are limited. Aims We sought to identify the primary factors influencing DT in women from central China, at or beyond term, who underwent IOL with dinoprostone vaginal inserts. Methods In this retrospective observational study, we analyzed the data of 1562 women at 37 weeks 0 days to 41 weeks 6 days of gestation who underwent dinoprostone-induced labor between January 1st, 2019, and December 31st, 2021. The outcomes of interest were vaginal or cesarean delivery and factors influencing DT, including maternal complications and neonatal characteristics. Results Among the enrolled women, 71% (1109/1562) delivered vaginally, with median DT of 740.50 min (interquartile range 443.25 to 1264.50 min). Of the remaining 29% (453/1562), who delivered by cesarean section, 11.9% (54/453) were multiparous. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that multiparity, advanced maternal age, fetal macrosomia, premature rupture of membranes (PROM), and daytime insertion of dinoprostone were the factors that significantly influenced DT. Time to vaginal delivery increased with advanced maternal age and fetal macrosomia and decreased with multiparity, PROM, and daytime insertion of dinoprostone. A mathematical model was developed to integrate these factors for predicting DT: Y = 804.478 − 125.284 × multiparity + 765.637 × advanced maternal age + 411.511 × fetal macrosomia-593.358 × daytime insertion of dinoprostone − 125.284 × PROM. Conclusions Our findings may help obstetricians estimate the DT before placing a dinoprostone insert, which may improve patient management in busy maternity wards and minimize potential risks.