Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for Northeastern Adriatic coasts

Abstract

AbstractSignificant tsunamis in the Northern Adriatic are rare, and only a few historical events have been reported in the literature, with sources mostly located along central and southern parts of the Adriatic coasts. Recently, a tsunami alert system has been established for the whole Mediterranean area; however, a detailed description of the potential impact of tsunami waves on coastal areas is still missing for several sites. This study aims to model the hazard associated with possible tsunamis generated by offshore earthquakes, with the purpose of contributing to tsunami risk assessment for selected urban areas along the Northeastern Adriatic coasts. Tsunami modelling is performed by the NAMI DANCE software, which allows accounting for seismic source properties, variable bathymetry, and nonlinear effects in wave propagation. Hazard scenarios at the shoreline are developed for the coastal areas of Northeastern Italy and at selected cities (namely, Trieste, Monfalcone, Lignano and Grado). An extensive set of potential tsunamigenic sources of tectonic origin located in three distance ranges (namely at Adriatic-wide, regional and local scales) are considered for the modelling. Sources are defined according to available literature, which includes catalogues of historical tsunamis and existing active faults databases. Accordingly, a set of tsunami-related parameters and maps are obtained (e.g. maximum run-up, arrival times, synthetic mareograms) that are relevant to planning mitigation actions at the selected sites.