Distribution models in invasive plants with climatic niche expansion: a case study of Ulex europaeus L. in Colombian Andes

Abstract

AbstractInvasive plants have a wide distribution worldwide. Their ability to adapt and colonize different climates is attributed to the phenotypic plasticity and the expansion of the climatic niche of the species. Simultaneously, their distribution patterns will be affected by climate change, creating or reducing the ideal areas for their establishment. We evaluated the current and potential distribution of Ulex europaeus L. in Colombia, under the global circulation models ACCESS-ESM1-5 and MIROC6 in two scenarios, for the years 2041–2060, taking into account its climate niche expansion. An ecological niche model was built for this purpose using Maxent algorithm of the KUENM, the records of the species in native and invasive condition from the GBIF portal, and records obtained through field trips and bioclimatic variables from Worldclim2 were used. Changes in potential distribution were analyzed with the Biomod2. A total of 1072 occurrence records were found for U. europaeus and 109 records were found in Colombia in the Cordillera Central and Oriental, where an expansion of the altitudinal range was evidenced from 2000 to 4052 m above sea level. Climate change models for Colombia showed that the creation of new areas for potential establishment is less than 1% and there is a reduction in potential distribution of 12 and 31% due to unsuitable climatic conditions that would affect their germination capacity. However, given its potential for adaptation, the invasions will persist in the new conditions and will continue their colonization process at higher altitudes where they find optimal temperatures for their germination and establishment.