China’s safe and just space during 40 years of rapid urbanization and changing policies

Abstract

Abstract Context China’s high-speed economic development was accompanied by rapid urbanization for forty years, guided by a series of changing policies enacted by the central government. However, did China become more sustainable both economically and environmentally? Or more specifically, did it operate within or towards a safe and just space (SJS)? Although numerous relevant studies exist, these questions have not been adequately addressed, and a multi-scale landscape perspective is needed. Objectives The main objective of this study was to examine China’s urbanization trends, associated institutional changes, and their impacts on the nation’s sustainability trajectory during the past four decades. Specifically, we intended to analyze the impacts of urbanization and related policies on the spatial patterns, temporal trends, shortfalls, and complex nexus of the different dimensions of SJS across scales in China. Methods We apply the SJS framework, which integrates eight environmental ceilings and seven social justice foundations, to examine China’s urbanization, socioeconomic dynamics, and institutional changes, as well as their impacts on sustainability at multiple spatial scales. Segmented regression and correlation analysis were used to analyze the relationship of SJS with landscape urbanization and governance across China. Results Since the implementation of China’s Western Development Plan, China has faced increasing challenges of overshoots in CO2 emissions, phosphorus and nitrogen loading, ecological footprint, and material footprint on a per capita basis. However, our analysis showed that, by 2015, China met nearly all basic social justice needs. The pattern of SJS showed geospatial gradients of increasing social justice (except material footprint), multi-footprints, and CO2 from eastern to central, northeastern, and western regions, and from developed to developing provinces. The tradeoffs between social justice, environmental safety, and regional equality remain pronounced across heterogeneous landscapes with different levels of urbanization. The western region’s material footprint expanded enormously, but mainly for consumption in the eastern region of China. Conclusions China’s development in the past four decades is characterized by enormous economic growth, rapid urbanization, much improved living standards, highly fragmented landscapes, and increasing environmental problems. To promote sustainability, China should continue to implement the strategy of high-quality development and promote ecological civilization. Regional landscape-based approaches are needed to explicitly recognize geospatial heterogeneity and disparities, and better understand the urbanization-governance-landscape nexus for promoting a safer and more just China.