Detailed parallel social modeling for the analysis of COVID-19 spread

Abstract

AbstractAgent-based epidemiological simulators have been proven to be one of the most successful tools for the analysis of COVID-19 propagation. The ability of these tools to reproduce the behavior and interactions of each single individual leads to accurate and detailed results, which can be used to model fine-grained health-related policies like selective vaccination campaigns or immunity waning. One characteristic of these tools is the large amount of input data and computational resources that they require. This relies on the development of parallel algorithms and methodologies for generating, accessing, and processing large volumes of data from multiple data sources. This work presents a parallel workflow for extending the social modeling of EpiGraph, an agent-based simulator. We have included two novel parallel social generation stages that generate a detailed and realistic social model and one new visualization stage. This work also presents a description of the algorithms used in each stage, different optimization techniques that permit to reduce the application convergence time, and a practical evaluation of large workloads on HPC systems. Results show that this contribution can be efficiently executed in parallel architectures and the results allow to increase the simulation detail level, representing a significant advance in the simulator scenario modeling. As a summary of results, the first contribution of this paper is the development of two models (a spatial and a social one) that assign geographical and socioeconomic indicators to each simulated individual (i.e., agents), reproducing the real social distribution of the city of Madrid. The second contribution presents an improved parallel and distributed algorithm that executes the two aforementioned models using different parallelization strategies and preserving the load balance.