Intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting method based on dendrite neuron model and exponential smoothing

Abstract

AbstractMethods based on artificial neural networks for intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting can produce successful forecasting results. In the literature, exponential smoothing methods are hybridised with artificial neural networks due to their simple and efficient structures to improve the forecasting performance. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new forecasting approach combining exponential smoothing methods and intuitionistic fuzzy time series. In this study, a forecasting algorithm based on the dendrite neuron model and simple exponential smoothing methods is proposed for modelling intuitionistic fuzzy time series. In the fuzzification stage of the proposed method, the intuitionistic fuzzy c-means method is used. The proposed method is a modular method using two separate dendrite neuron model neural networks and the grey wolf optimisation algorithm is used to estimate all parameters of the method. The performance of the proposed method is applied on four different random time series obtained for Index of Coin Market Cap and the performance of the method is compared with some other fuzzy forecasting methods. As a result of the analyses, it is concluded that the proposed modular method has better forecasting results than other methods.